Macroeconometric Modeling using TROLL
The course will introduce all the basic tools for constructing and implementing large-scale multi-national and dynamic intertemporal macroeconometric models for policy analysis.
By the end of the course the participants will have acquired detailed knowledge of and extensive hands-on experience in:
- the use of TROLL,
- the structure of dynamic macroeconometric models,
- building the database for such models,
- introducing forward-looking expectations,
- estimating and calibrating the models,
- implementing the model on the computer using the TROLL software,
- formulating scenarios and running policy simulations,
- reporting and interpreting the results.
The course will use the MULTIMOD model of the International Monetary Fund and the QUEST model of the European Commission. MULTIMOD and QUEST are modern dynamic multicountry macroeconometric models of the world economy that have been designed to study the transmission of shocks across countries as well as the short-run and medium-term consequences of alternative monetary and fiscal policies.
Both models assume that behavior is completely forward-looking in goods markets, but it is possible to study the effect of shocks under alternative assumptions about the degree of policy credibility. Given the forward-looking nature of the model, the fundamental role of the monetary authorities is to provide an anchor for inflation expectations.
The models include well-defined steady-state analog models for each country and for the world economy as a whole. These steady-state models serve two roles. First, they are used to construct terminal conditions for the dynamic models. Second, they can be used to study the long-run effects of shocks that have permanent consequences on savings, capital formation, output, real interest rates, real exchange rates, etc. Despite the focus on medium-term and long-run properties, the models also have important short-run Keynesian dynamics that feature significant wage and price rigidities.
MULTIMOD and QUEST are implemented on TROLL.
The fee for the course is US$2,760. This includes course materials, lectures, computer labs, morning and afternoon coffee breaks, receptions.
University students and staff get a discount of 25 percent of the above mentioned amount. Please send (by email: office [at] ecomod [dot] net or by fax: +1 413 517 0900) a copy of your student or staff card.
Institutional group rates are available for two or more persons attending during the same course period. Please inquire.
EcoMod offers a limited number of partial scholarships to candidates from developing countries and transition economies. To submit your application, please click here. The deadline to apply for a scholarship is two months before the beginning of the course.