EcoMod2017
Wednesday July 5th
8:15-8:45 Registration
8:45-9:00 Welcome and Opening Session (Blue Hall / Auditorium)
Mitja Cok, President, Local organizing Committee
Metka Tekavčič, Dean, Faculty of Economics, University of Ljubljana
Ali Bayar, President, EcoMod Network
9:00-10:30 Plenary Session (Blue Hall / Auditorium)
Chair: Durmus Ozdemir
Prof. Dr. Maja Makovec Brenčič, Minister of Education, Slovenia
Stock-flow Consistent Macroeconomic Models: A Survey
Gennaro Zezza (Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, USA)
10:30-11:00 Refreshment Break
11:00-12:30 Parallel Sessions
Session A1: Regional Modeling (Room: P217)
Chair: Karl W. Steininger
Institutional and economic determinants of Sub-national public debt in Spain
Maria del Mar Delgado, Pablo Hernandez de Cos, Javier J. Perez
A sectoral view of the Flemish competitivity and productivity
Dirk Hoorelbeke
Austria's Consumption-Based Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Identifying sectoral sources and destinations
Karl W. Steininger, Pablo Munoz, Jonas Karstensen, Glen P. Peters, Rita Strohmaier, Erick Velázquez
Session B1: Finance (Room: P216)
Chair: Esra Ulasan
Catering incentives and dividend payout policy: The case of Turkey
Sefa Takmaz, Pinar Evrim Mandaci
An Analytical Tool for Forex Transaction
Iman Gunadi, Apsari Dharmesti, Aghnia Yurizkanti
Empirical Gram Matrix Estimation Using High-Frequency Data for Portfolio Optimization and Gross Exposure: Evidence from Emerging Stock Markets
Esra Ulasan, A. Ozlem Onder
Session C1: Energy and Environment (Room: P108)
Chair: Thais Oliveira
Effective climate policies for production and consumption based emission reductions
Stefan Nabernegg, Pablo Muñoz, Birgit Bednar-Friedl, Michaela Titz, Johanna Vogel
The impacts of higher CO2 concentrations over global crop production and irrigation water requirements
Victor Nechifor, Matthew Winning
National Cost and Benefit from Electric Vehicle Promotion Policy
Chanyoung Hong, Won Sik Hwang
Linking Emissions Trading Schemes: An Economic Impact Assessment for Europe and Brazil using EPPA6 model
Thais Oliveira, Angelo C. Gurgel, Steve Tonry
Session D1: General Equilibrium Modeling (Room: P109)
Chair: Ozge Filiz Yagcibasi
Banks' balance sheet, uncertainty and macroeconomy
Ekaterina Pirozhkova
Housing Market Dynamics and Macroprudential Policy in Turkey: Evidence from an estimated DSGE model
Mustafa Ozan Yildirim
Should Central Bank Respond to Exchange Rates : An Estimated DSGE Model for Turkey
Ozge Filiz Yagcibasi, Mustafa Ozan Yildirim
Session E1: Tax and Trade Issues (Room: P019)
Chair: Jakub Boratyński
Multi-Scenario Sensistivity Analysis wit a very large CGE Model
Olga Diukanova
Revisiting Trade Protecting in the Age of Trump: How expensive are trade taxes?
Can Erbil
The Balassa-Samuelson effect in CEE economies: a CGE analysis
Jakub Boratyński, Jakub Borowski, Adam Czerniak, Dariusz Rosati
12:30-14:00 Lunch (Executive Conference Room)
14:00-15:30 Parallel Sessions
Session A2: Business cycles (Room: P217)
Chair: Jacek Kotłowski
Times of crisis and female labor force participation - Lessons from the Spanish flu
Timo Baas, Farzaneh Shamsfakhr
Economic fluctuations and economic forecasts in a data-scarce environment: Lessons from VAR modeling of the Trinidad and Tobago Economy
Alain Maurin, Jean Gabriel Montauban, Patrick Kent Watson
International sentiment spillovers and business cycles in small open economies
Jacek Kotlowski and Michal Brzoza-Brzezina
Session B2: Finance (Room: P216
Chair: Lucian-Liviu Albu
What News are relevant to Brazilian Market? Testing the volatility transmission effect between US and Brazil Stock Markets
Felipe de Oliveira, Sinézio Fernandes Maia, Diego Pita de Jesus
On a measure of dependence for extreme value copulas
Naoyuki Ishimura, Naohiro Yoshida
A comparison of stochastic claims reserving methods
Sukriye Tuysuz, Pervin Pekel
Trends in Dynamics of Public Debt in EU
Lucian-Liviu Albu, Ada Cristina Marinescu
Session C2: Energy and Environment (Room: P108)
Chair: Dirk Willenbockel
Joining a carbon-policies coalition: Flexible mechanisms, competitiveness and anti-leakage instruments in Europe
Taran Faehn, Christoph Boehringer, Brita Bye, Orvika Rosnes
National Cost and Benefit from Electric Vehicle Promotion Policy
Chanyoung Hong, Won Sik Hwang
The Interaction of Climate and Trade Policy
Frank Pothen and Michael Hübler
Macroeconomic Effects of a Low-Carbon Energy Transition in Kenya
Dirk Willenboeckel
Session D2: General Equilibrium Modeling (Room: P109)
Chair: Ramon E. Key-Hernandez
On the (in)effectiveness of LTV regulation in a multi-constraint framework
Anna Grodecka
Finding an Optimal Policy Mix for Housing Market in Indonesia : A structural Approach
Danny Hermawan
Out-migration in Venezuela in the XXI Century: an assessment of the potential GDP loss by using a computable general equilibrium framework
Ramon E. Key-Hernandez, Claudina Villarroel
Session E2: Tax and Trade Issues (Room: P019)
Chair: Abeer Elshennawy
Ancillary Costs of Adaptation under Alternative Financing Mechanisms
Elisa Delpiazzo, Ramiro Parrado
Tremendous global spillovers. Analysis and mechanisms of the destination based border adjustment tax.
Ursel Baumann, Alistair Dieppe Allan Gloe Dizioli
The Credibility of Preferential Trade Agreement
Abeer Elshennawy
15:30-16:00 Refreshment Break (RRR)
16:00-17:30 Parallel Sessions
Session A3: Business Cycles (Room: P217)
Chair: Marek Radvansky
Re-assessing monetary policy shocks in China
Alistair Dieppe, Bjorn van Roye, Paolo Bonomolo
Tuning in RBC Growth Spectra
Szilard Benk,Tamas Csabafi, Jing Dang, Max Gillman, Michal Kejak
Reviewing Historical Performance of the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure
Marek Radvansky and Maria Siranova
Session B3: Finance (Room: P216)
Chair: Slaven Mickovic
The Impact of Interconnectedness in Interbank Call Money Market to Indonesian Banking Efficiency
Justina Adamanti, Ndari Surjaningsih, Januar Hafidz, M. Harris Muhajir, M. Sahirul Alim
Dynamic Relation between Global Islamic and Conventional Sectoral Stock Indices and Bonds
Sukriye Tuysuz
Stress testing for ICAAP purposes - Application of SloBankMod model
Slaven Mickovic
Session C3: Energy and Environment (Room: P108)
Chair: Ionut Purica
Subsidies to the Energy Sector in Venezuela: the effects of their removal considering inter-fuel substitution
Ramon E. Key-Hernandez, Claudina Villarroel
The Push for Renewables in India: A Real Options Approach Supratim Das Gupta, Alejandro Mosiño
Energy Volatilities and the Cost of Security
Ionut Purica
Session D3: General Equilibrium Modeling (Room: P109)
Chair: Gleb Kurovskiy
Distributional effects of higher natural gas prices in Russia
Anton Orlov
Macroeconomic implications of a 2°C-compatible transition path in the European iron and steel industry
Jakob Mayer, Gabriel Bachner, Karl W. Steininger
Modelling terms of trade volatility impact on output dynamics in Russia
Gleb Kurovskiy
Session E3: Tax and Trade Issues (Room: P019)
Chair: Magdalena Zachlod-Jelec
Cross-country fiscal policy spillovers and capital-skill complementarity in currency unions
Matthias Molnar and Thomas Davoine
Who bears the burden? Tax Strategies to Reduce Long-term Debt in Italy: An overlapping generations model approach
Jonathan Pycroft and Magdalena Zachlod-Jelec
Combining micro- and macroeconomic approach to simulate labour tax wedge cut in Italy
Magdalena Zachlod-Jelec, Anamaria Maftei, and Jonathan Pycroft
18:00-20:00 Welcome Reception (Faculty of Economics, University of Ljubljana)
Atrium of the Faculty of Economics (weather permitting)
Thursday July 6th
9:00-10:30 Parallel Sessions
Session A4: Forecasting and projection methods (Room: P217)
Chair: Zivile Zekaite
Alternating Migration Flows and their Age-Structure Effects on the Long-Term Sustainability of the German Statutory Pension Insurance
Jan Valentin Vogt
The transition behaviour from school to studies - Empirical evidence on the reasons of a delayed start of studies in Germany
Britta Stoever
ALICE: A New Inflation Monitoring Tool
Zivile Zekaite, Gabe de Bondt, Elke Hahn
Session B4: Agricultural Issues (Room: P216)
Chair: Lal K. Almas
Modeling the Distributive Effects of an Agricultural Shcok on Houshold Income in South Africa: A SAM Multiplier Decomposition and Structural Path Analysis
Julius Mukarati, Makombe Godswill
Modelling field operations in a computable general equilibrium model: An application to labour shortages in Bhutan
Arndt Feuerbacher, Jonas Luckmann
Estimating Demand Elasticities for Aggregate Food Groups using QUAIDS and Pooled HIES Data
Mehreen Zaid Ullah, Hina Fatima, Lal K. Almas, Mallory K. Vestal, and Nasim Akhter
Session C4: Invited Session on Stock-Flow Consistent Modeling (Room: P108)
Chair: Ali Bayar
Climate change, financial stability and monetary policy
Yannis Dafermos
SFC model for the economy of Ecuador
Gennaro Zezza
Session D4: General Equilibrium Modeling (Room: P109)
Chair: Roberto Roson
Assessing the Impacts of an Enhanced Vocational Training Systems in the Sudan: A Dynamic CGE Application
Zuhal Mohammed, Khalid Siddig, Harald Grethe
Effects of a Tariff on the Fabrication of Transport Equipment in Mexico
Gaspar Nunez
Assessing Long Run Structural Change in Multi-Sector General Equilibrium Models
Roberto Roson
10:30-11:00 Refreshment Break (Senat Conference Room)
11:00-12:30 Parallel Sessions
Session A5: Macroeconometric Modeling and Forecasting (Room: P217)
Chair: Klaus Weyerstrass
Nowcasting private consumption: traditional indicators, uncertainty measures, and the role of internet search query data
Javier J. Perez and Alberto Urtasun
The closer we get, the better we are
Nathan Goldstein and Ben-Zion Ziberfarb
Demand Side or Supply Side Stabilization Policies in a Small Euro Area Economy: A Case Study for Slovenia
Klaus Weyerstrass, Reinhard Neck, Dmitri Blueschke, Boris Majcen, Andrej Srakar, Miroslav Verbic
Session B5: Finance and Monetary Policy (P216)
Chair: Gabe de Bondt
Unconventional taxation policy financial frictions and liquidity traps
William J. Tayler and Roy Zilberman
LGD Modelling - Comparison of models
Sukriye Tuysuz and Emre Unal
Confidence and monetary policy transmission
Gabe de Bondt
Session C5: Labor Market Issues (Room: P108)
Chair: Maria Giovanna Bosco
Gender, Ethnicity, and Wages in New Zealand
Murat Genc
Transition from secondary to higher education in Flanders after the implementation of the Bologna Process: a multilevel model binary choice model
Mike Smet, Barbara Janssens
Education, Social Assistance and Employment Dynamics: A Panel Data Approach
Julide Yildirim, Ayse Savas
From temporary to permanent jobs: a stepping stone analysis for Emilia Romagna
Maria Giovanna Bosco, Elisa Valeriani
Session D5: General Equilibrium Modeling (Room: P109)
Chair: Ramiro Parrado
Beyond Water Stress: Structural Adjustment and Macroeconomic Consequences of the Emerging Water Scarcity
Roberto Roson, Richard Damania
Relative importance of fertility and mortality in the economic impacts of ageing in Finland
Risto Vaittinen, Sanna Tenhunen
The implications of irrigation as an adaptation measure on an economy wide context
Ramiro Parrado, Anna Dellarole, Francesco Bosello
12:30-14:00 Lunch (Executive Conference Room)
14:00-19:00 Free Afternoon
19:00-22:00 Gala Dinner
Restaurant klub Cankarjevega doma,
Prešernova cesta 10, 1000 Ljubljana
Friday July 7th
9:00-10:30 Parallel Sessions
Session A6: Agricultural issues (Room: P217)
Chair: Martina Sartori
The Role of Agriculture Sector in Rwandan Economy: An Empirical Impact Analysis
Hashim Al-Ali
Influences of uncertain shocks from earthquake on regional economy: Application of a DSGE Model to the East-Japan Earthquake and its recovery investment
Yoji Kunimitsu
The impact of climate and land use change on agriculture in EU28: A computable general equilibrium analysis
Martina Sartori, Davide Geneletti, Stefano Schiavo
Session B6: Macroeconometric Modeling (Room: P216)
Chair: Christopher Baum
Dynamics of Child Poverty in the European Countries
Carmen Blanco-Arana, Elena Barcena-Martín, Salvador Pérez-Moreno
Socio-Economic Factors Affecting Early Childhood Health: The Case of Turkey
Deniz Karaoglan and Sirin Saracoglu
Modelling the Vietnamese econom : structural or quasi accounting model?
Jean Louis Brillet
Refugees in Sweden: Economic integration and wage convergence
Christopher Baum, Cindy Alder, Hans Loof, Andreas Stephan
Session C6: Growth (Room: P108)
Chair: Kiyoon Shin
The short-term impact of structural reforms on productivity growth: beyond direct effects
Ana Fontoura Gouveia, Silvia Santos and Ines Goncalves
Factor-Specific Technology Choice
Jakub Growiec
Study on Economy-wide Impact Assessment of Public Procurement for Innovation for New Emerging Industry: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach
Kiyoon Shin, Yeongjun Yeo, Sungmoon Jung, Jeong-Dong Lee
Session D6: General Equilibrium Modeling Issues (Room: P109)
Chair: Khalid Siddig
Growth versus equity: A CGE analysis for macroeconomic policy mix for the sustainable economic growth
Yeongjun Yeo, Sungmoon Jung, Kiyoon Shin, Jeong-Dong Lee
An integrated macroeconomic, demographic and health modelling framework for palm oil policies in Thailand
Marcus Keogh-Brown, Henning Tarp Jenson, Bhavani Shankar, Sanjay Basu, Soledad Cuevas, Alan Dangour, Shabbir H. Gheewala, Rosemary Green, Edward Joy, Nalitra Thaiprasert, Richard Smith
Labor exports from the West Bank to Israel: between regretting the past and hoping for a better future
Johanes Agbahey, Khalid Siddig, Harald Grethe
Session E6: Public Finance and Tax Policy (Room: P019)
Chair: Boris Majcen
Modelling corporate tax reform in the EU: New simulations with the CORTAX model
Maria Teresa Alvarez-Martinez, Salvador Barrios, Diego d'Andria, Maria Gesualdo, Dimitrios Pontikakis, Jonathan Pycroft
Integrating Microsimulation Tax Functions into a DGE Macroeconomic Model: A Canonical Example
Kerk Phillips, Richard W. Evans, Jason DeBacker
Development of Dynamic Pension Microsimulation Models for Slovenia and Their Practical Use
Mitja Čok, Gijs Dekkers, Aleša Lotrič Dolinar, Nataša Kump, Boris Majcen, Jože Sambt, Martin Spielauer, Tomaž Turk
10:30-11:00 Refreshment Break (Senat Conference Room)
11:00-12:30 Parallel Session
Session A7: Agent-Based Modeling (Room: P217)
Chair: Duc Pham-Hi
Social Network Structure and The Trade-Off Between Social Utility and Economic Performance
Jakub Growiec, Bogumił Kamiński, Katarzyna Growiec
Efficacy of Fiscal Policy Changes in a Liquidity Trap: Does Household Heterogeneity Matter?
Bilal Bagis
Prototyping the macroeconomic impact of cryptomoney with a small agent-based model
Duc Pham-Hi
Session B7: Macroeconometric Modeling (Room: P216)
Chair: Aleksandra Halka
Identifying SVARs with Sign Restrictions and Heteroskedasticity
Srecko Zimic
Modeling of economic growth in Azerbaijan in the post-oil period
Adalat Muradov, Yadulla Hasanli, Nazim Hajiyev, Turaj Musayev
Determinants of low inflation in emerging, small open economy. Comparison of aggregated and disaggregated approaches
Aleksandra Halka, Karol Szafranek
Session C7: Miscellaneous Modeling Techniques (Room: P108)
Chair: Angi Roesch
BRIC stock market importance --- raw material suppliers versus manufacturing economies
Harald Schmidbauer, Angi Roesch, Erhan Uluceviz
Solving stochastic OLG (Overlapping Generation) models using VFI Toolkit in Matlab
Robert Kirkby
Did the BRICS institutionalization boost their stock market interconnectedness?
Angi Roesch, Harald Schmidbauer, Erhan Uluceviz
Session D7: General Equilibrium Modeling (Room: P109)
Chair: Mario Fortuna
Lifting two-decades-long economic sanctions on the Sudan: Future pathways of agricultural development in a normalized economy
Khalid Siddig
Welfare Effect of Sanctions on Iran in a Dynamic CGE Model
Mortaza Baky Haskuee
A CGE Model of the Impact of Military Expenditures in the US Air Base
Mario Fortuna
Session E7: Developing Countries (Room: P019)
Chair: Nihal Bayraktar
Optimal Income tax rates with non-democratic political constraints: case of Armenia
Vardan Baghdasaryan, Hayk Hambardzumyan
Measuring the Efficiency of Resource Allocation in Turkish Economy Using Data Envelopment Analysis
Esra Alp
Public Security Spending and Growth
Nihal Bayraktar
12:30-14:00 Lunch (Executive Conference Room)
14:00-15:30 Parallel Sessions
Session A8: Trade Issues (Room: P217)
Chair: Lumengo Bonga-Bonga
Export diversification, sophistication and economic growth in Morocco : An Econometric Analysis
Karim Mohamed, Lotfi Bilal, El Moussaoui Mohamed
Regional Integration and Trade Nexus in South Asia: Does Institutional Framework Matter?
Saima Nawaz, Mumtaz Ahmed
How financially integrated are trading blocs in Africa?
Lumengo Bonga-Bonga
Session B8: Macroeconometric Modeling (Room: P216)
Chair: Ulrike Lehr
Optimal Implementation Curves of European Structural and Investment Funds in The Case of Slovakia
Marek Radvansky, Ivan Lichner, Karol Frank
Green Financing Model : A Financial Instrument Toward Indonesia Green Economy
Rita Helbra Tenrini, Wesly Febriyanta Sinulingga
Who benefits from climate investments? It depends.
Ulrike Lehr, Malte Oehlmann, Ralph Buechele
Session C8: Miscellaneous Modeling Techniques (Room: P108)
Chair: Durmuş Özdemir
The Effects of Terrorism on Happiness: Evidence from Turkey
Tekin Kose, Julide Yildirim, Gizem Tanrivere
Housing valuation, wealth perception, and households' portfolio composition
Sofia Vale, Francisco Camaes
The Role of economic and social factors on hepatitis B prevalence in Turkey
Selma Tosun, Olgu Aygün, Hülya Özkan Özdemir, Elif Korkmaz and Durmuş Özdemir
Session D8: General Equilibrium Modeling (Room: P109)
Chair: Kazuhiko Oyamada
Elasticity of substitution between labor and capital: robust evidence from developed economies
Jakub Muck
Panel estimation of sectoral substitution elasticities for CES production functions
Michal Antoszewski
Behavioral Characteristics of Applied General Equilibrium Models with Variable Elasticity of Substitution between Varieties from Different Sources
Kazuhiko Oyamada
Session E8: Developing Countries (Room: P019)
Chair: Imran Garayev
Is Economic Complexity Spatially Dependent? A spatial analysis of interactions of economic complexity between municipalities in Brazil Heder de Oliveira, Timo Verheij
Economic Costs of Rent-Seeking Activities in Resource Rich Countries
Aizhan Samambayeva
Globalization and Tax Policy
Imran Garayev
15:30-16:00 Refreshment Break (Senat Conference Room)
16:00-17:00 Plenary Session (Blue Hall / Auditorium)
Chair: Can Erbil
Agent-based Models: Opening New Worlds of Applied and Theoretical Economics
Steven F. Railsback, Department of Mathematics, Humboldt State University, and Lang Railsback & Associates, Arcata, California, USA
17:00-17:30 Closing session (Blue Hall / Auditorium)
Mitja Cok, President of the LOC
Ali Bayar, President of EcoMod
Roberto Roson, Università Ca' Foscari, Venice, Italy
Web Presentations
Capital account flows, consumption ratios and the middle-income trap
Robert Alexander, Daping Zhao, Shanghai Lixin, and Sajid Anwar
Volatility Forecasting before the Subprime Crisis?
Felipe de Oliveira and Sinézio Maia