Modeling with Impact


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Wednesday July 5th

8:15-8:45 Registration

8:45-9:00      Welcome and Opening Session (Blue Hall / Auditorium)

Mitja Cok, President, Local organizing Committee

Metka Tekavčič, Dean, Faculty of Economics, University of Ljubljana

Ali Bayar, President, EcoMod Network


9:00-10:30    Plenary Session (Blue Hall / Auditorium)

Chair: Durmus Ozdemir

Prof. Dr. Maja Makovec Brenčič, Minister of Education, Slovenia

Stock-flow Consistent Macroeconomic Models: A Survey

Gennaro Zezza (Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, USA)


10:30-11:00 Refreshment Break

11:00-12:30 Parallel Sessions

Session A1: Regional Modeling (Room: P217)

Chair: Karl W. Steininger

Institutional and economic determinants of Sub-national public debt in Spain

Maria del Mar Delgado, Pablo Hernandez de Cos,  Javier J. Perez

A sectoral view of the Flemish competitivity and productivity

Dirk Hoorelbeke

Austria's Consumption-Based Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Identifying sectoral sources and destinations

Karl W. Steininger, Pablo Munoz, Jonas Karstensen, Glen P. Peters, Rita Strohmaier, Erick Velázquez


Session B1: Finance (Room: P216)

Chair: Esra Ulasan

Catering incentives and dividend payout policy: The case of Turkey

Sefa Takmaz, Pinar Evrim Mandaci

An Analytical Tool for Forex Transaction

Iman Gunadi, Apsari Dharmesti, Aghnia Yurizkanti

Empirical Gram Matrix Estimation Using High-Frequency Data for Portfolio Optimization and Gross Exposure: Evidence from Emerging Stock Markets

Esra Ulasan, A. Ozlem Onder


Session C1: Energy and Environment (Room: P108)

Chair: Thais Oliveira

Effective climate policies for production and consumption based emission reductions

Stefan Nabernegg, Pablo Muñoz, Birgit Bednar-Friedl, Michaela Titz, Johanna Vogel

The impacts of higher CO2 concentrations over global crop production and irrigation water requirements

Victor  Nechifor, Matthew Winning

National Cost and Benefit from Electric Vehicle Promotion Policy

Chanyoung Hong, Won Sik Hwang

Linking Emissions Trading Schemes: An Economic Impact Assessment for Europe and Brazil using EPPA6 model

Thais  Oliveira, Angelo C. Gurgel, Steve Tonry


Session D1: General Equilibrium Modeling (Room: P109)

Chair: Ozge Filiz Yagcibasi

Banks' balance sheet, uncertainty and macroeconomy

Ekaterina Pirozhkova

Housing Market Dynamics and Macroprudential Policy in Turkey:  Evidence from an estimated DSGE model

Mustafa Ozan Yildirim

Should Central Bank Respond to Exchange Rates : An Estimated DSGE Model for Turkey

Ozge Filiz Yagcibasi, Mustafa Ozan Yildirim


Session E1: Tax and Trade Issues (Room: P019)

Chair: Jakub Boratyński

Multi-Scenario Sensistivity Analysis wit a very large CGE Model

Olga Diukanova

Revisiting Trade Protecting in the Age of Trump: How expensive are trade taxes?

Can Erbil

The Balassa-Samuelson effect in CEE economies: a CGE analysis

Jakub Boratyński, Jakub Borowski, Adam Czerniak, Dariusz Rosati


12:30-14:00 Lunch (Executive Conference Room)


14:00-15:30 Parallel Sessions

Session A2: Business cycles (Room: P217)

Chair: Jacek Kotłowski

Times of crisis and female labor force participation - Lessons from the Spanish flu

Timo Baas, Farzaneh Shamsfakhr

Economic fluctuations and economic forecasts in a data-scarce environment: Lessons from VAR modeling of the Trinidad and Tobago Economy

Alain Maurin, Jean Gabriel Montauban, Patrick Kent Watson

International sentiment spillovers and business cycles in small open economies

Jacek Kotlowski and Michal Brzoza-Brzezina


Session B2: Finance (Room: P216

Chair: Lucian-Liviu Albu

What News are relevant to Brazilian Market? Testing the volatility transmission effect between US and Brazil Stock Markets

Felipe de Oliveira, Sinézio Fernandes Maia, Diego Pita de Jesus

On a measure of dependence for extreme value copulas

Naoyuki Ishimura, Naohiro Yoshida

A comparison of stochastic claims reserving methods

Sukriye Tuysuz, Pervin Pekel

Trends in Dynamics of Public Debt in EU

Lucian-Liviu Albu, Ada Cristina Marinescu


Session C2: Energy and Environment (Room: P108)

Chair: Dirk Willenbockel

Joining a carbon-policies coalition: Flexible mechanisms, competitiveness and anti-leakage instruments in Europe

Taran Faehn, Christoph Boehringer, Brita Bye, Orvika Rosnes

National Cost and Benefit from Electric Vehicle Promotion Policy

Chanyoung Hong, Won Sik Hwang

The Interaction of Climate and Trade Policy

Frank Pothen and Michael Hübler

Macroeconomic Effects of a Low-Carbon Energy Transition in Kenya

Dirk Willenboeckel


Session D2: General Equilibrium Modeling (Room: P109)

Chair: Ramon E. Key-Hernandez

On the (in)effectiveness of LTV regulation in a multi-constraint framework

Anna Grodecka

Finding an Optimal Policy Mix for Housing Market in Indonesia : A structural Approach

Danny Hermawan

Out-migration in Venezuela in the XXI Century: an assessment of the potential GDP loss by using a computable general equilibrium framework

Ramon E. Key-Hernandez, Claudina Villarroel

Session E2: Tax and Trade Issues (Room: P019)

Chair: Abeer Elshennawy

Ancillary Costs of Adaptation under Alternative Financing Mechanisms

Elisa Delpiazzo, Ramiro Parrado

Tremendous global spillovers. Analysis and mechanisms of the destination based border adjustment tax.

Ursel Baumann,  Alistair Dieppe  Allan Gloe Dizioli

The Credibility of Preferential Trade Agreement

Abeer Elshennawy


15:30-16:00 Refreshment Break (RRR)

16:00-17:30 Parallel Sessions

Session A3: Business Cycles (Room: P217)

Chair: Marek Radvansky

Re-assessing monetary policy shocks in China

Alistair Dieppe, Bjorn van Roye,  Paolo Bonomolo

Tuning in RBC Growth Spectra

Szilard Benk,Tamas Csabafi, Jing Dang, Max Gillman, Michal Kejak

Reviewing Historical Performance of the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure

Marek Radvansky and Maria Siranova


Session B3: Finance (Room: P216)

Chair: Slaven Mickovic

The Impact of Interconnectedness in Interbank Call Money Market to Indonesian Banking Efficiency

Justina Adamanti, Ndari Surjaningsih, Januar Hafidz, M. Harris Muhajir, M. Sahirul Alim

Dynamic Relation between Global Islamic and Conventional Sectoral Stock Indices and Bonds

Sukriye Tuysuz

Stress testing for ICAAP purposes - Application of SloBankMod model

Slaven Mickovic


Session C3: Energy and Environment (Room: P108)

Chair: Ionut Purica

Subsidies to the Energy Sector in Venezuela: the effects of their removal considering inter-fuel substitution

Ramon E. Key-Hernandez, Claudina Villarroel

The Push for Renewables in India: A Real Options Approach Supratim Das Gupta, Alejandro Mosiño

Energy Volatilities and the Cost of Security

Ionut Purica


Session D3: General Equilibrium Modeling (Room: P109)

Chair: Gleb Kurovskiy

Distributional effects of higher natural gas prices in Russia

Anton Orlov

Macroeconomic implications of a 2°C-compatible transition path in the European iron and steel industry

Jakob Mayer, Gabriel Bachner, Karl W. Steininger

Modelling terms of trade volatility impact on output dynamics in Russia

Gleb Kurovskiy


Session E3: Tax and Trade Issues (Room: P019)

Chair: Magdalena Zachlod-Jelec

Cross-country fiscal policy spillovers and capital-skill complementarity in currency unions

Matthias Molnar and Thomas Davoine

Who bears the burden? Tax Strategies to Reduce Long-term Debt in Italy: An overlapping generations model approach

Jonathan Pycroft and Magdalena Zachlod-Jelec

Combining micro- and macroeconomic approach to simulate labour tax wedge cut in Italy

Magdalena Zachlod-Jelec, Anamaria Maftei, and Jonathan Pycroft


18:00-20:00 Welcome Reception (Faculty of Economics, University of Ljubljana)

Atrium of the Faculty of Economics (weather permitting)


Thursday July 6th

9:00-10:30    Parallel Sessions


Session A4: Forecasting and projection methods (Room: P217)

Chair: Zivile Zekaite

Alternating Migration Flows and their Age-Structure Effects on the Long-Term Sustainability of the German Statutory Pension Insurance

Jan Valentin Vogt

The transition behaviour from school to studies - Empirical evidence on the reasons of a delayed start of studies in Germany

Britta Stoever

ALICE: A New Inflation Monitoring Tool

Zivile Zekaite, Gabe de Bondt, Elke Hahn


Session B4: Agricultural Issues (Room: P216)

Chair: Lal K. Almas

Modeling the Distributive Effects of an Agricultural Shcok on Houshold Income in South Africa: A SAM Multiplier Decomposition and Structural Path Analysis

Julius  Mukarati, Makombe Godswill

Modelling field operations in a computable general equilibrium model: An application to labour shortages in Bhutan

Arndt Feuerbacher, Jonas Luckmann

Estimating Demand Elasticities for Aggregate Food Groups using QUAIDS and Pooled HIES Data

Mehreen Zaid Ullah, Hina Fatima, Lal K. Almas, Mallory K. Vestal, and Nasim Akhter


Session C4: Invited Session on Stock-Flow Consistent Modeling (Room: P108)

Chair: Ali Bayar

Climate change, financial stability and monetary policy

Yannis Dafermos

SFC model for the economy of Ecuador

Gennaro Zezza


Session D4: General Equilibrium Modeling (Room: P109)

Chair: Roberto Roson

Assessing the Impacts of an Enhanced Vocational Training Systems in the Sudan:  A Dynamic CGE Application

Zuhal Mohammed, Khalid Siddig, Harald Grethe

Effects of a Tariff on the Fabrication of Transport Equipment in Mexico

Gaspar Nunez

Assessing Long Run Structural Change in Multi-Sector General Equilibrium Models

Roberto Roson


10:30-11:00 Refreshment Break (Senat Conference Room)

11:00-12:30 Parallel Sessions

Session A5: Macroeconometric Modeling and Forecasting (Room: P217)

Chair: Klaus Weyerstrass

Nowcasting private consumption: traditional indicators, uncertainty measures, and the role of internet search query data

Javier J. Perez and Alberto Urtasun

The closer we get, the better we are

Nathan Goldstein and Ben-Zion Ziberfarb

Demand Side or Supply Side Stabilization Policies in a Small Euro Area Economy: A Case Study for Slovenia

Klaus Weyerstrass, Reinhard Neck, Dmitri Blueschke, Boris Majcen, Andrej Srakar, Miroslav Verbic


Session B5: Finance and Monetary Policy (P216)

Chair: Gabe de Bondt

Unconventional taxation policy financial frictions and liquidity traps

William J. Tayler and Roy Zilberman

LGD Modelling - Comparison of models

Sukriye Tuysuz and Emre Unal

Confidence and monetary policy transmission

Gabe  de Bondt


Session C5: Labor Market Issues (Room: P108)

Chair: Maria Giovanna Bosco

Gender, Ethnicity, and Wages in New Zealand

Murat  Genc

Transition from secondary to higher education in Flanders after the implementation of the Bologna Process: a multilevel model binary choice model

Mike Smet, Barbara Janssens

Education, Social Assistance and Employment Dynamics: A Panel Data Approach

Julide Yildirim, Ayse Savas

From temporary to permanent jobs: a stepping stone analysis  for Emilia Romagna

Maria Giovanna Bosco, Elisa Valeriani


Session D5: General Equilibrium Modeling (Room: P109)

Chair: Ramiro Parrado

Beyond Water Stress: Structural Adjustment and Macroeconomic Consequences of the Emerging Water Scarcity

Roberto Roson, Richard Damania

Relative importance of fertility and mortality in the economic impacts of ageing in Finland

Risto Vaittinen, Sanna Tenhunen

The implications of irrigation as an adaptation measure on an economy wide context

Ramiro Parrado, Anna Dellarole, Francesco Bosello


12:30-14:00 Lunch (Executive Conference Room)

14:00-19:00 Free Afternoon


19:00-22:00 Gala Dinner

Restaurant klub Cankarjevega doma,

Prešernova cesta 10, 1000 Ljubljana

Friday July 7th

9:00-10:30    Parallel Sessions

Session A6: Agricultural issues (Room: P217)

Chair: Martina Sartori

The Role of Agriculture Sector in Rwandan Economy: An Empirical Impact Analysis

Hashim Al-Ali

Influences of uncertain shocks from earthquake on regional economy: Application of a DSGE Model to the East-Japan Earthquake and its recovery investment

Yoji Kunimitsu

The impact of climate and land use change on agriculture in EU28:  A computable general equilibrium analysis

Martina Sartori, Davide Geneletti, Stefano Schiavo


Session B6: Macroeconometric Modeling (Room: P216)

Chair: Christopher Baum

Dynamics of Child Poverty in the European Countries

Carmen Blanco-Arana, Elena Barcena-Martín, Salvador Pérez-Moreno

Socio-Economic Factors Affecting Early Childhood Health: The Case of Turkey

Deniz Karaoglan and Sirin Saracoglu

Modelling the Vietnamese econom : structural or quasi accounting model?

Jean Louis Brillet

Refugees in Sweden: Economic integration and wage convergence

Christopher Baum, Cindy Alder,  Hans Loof, Andreas Stephan


Session C6: Growth (Room: P108)

Chair: Kiyoon Shin

The short-term impact of structural reforms on productivity growth: beyond direct effects

Ana Fontoura Gouveia, Silvia Santos and Ines Goncalves

Factor-Specific Technology Choice

Jakub Growiec

Study on Economy-wide Impact Assessment of Public Procurement for Innovation for New Emerging Industry: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach

Kiyoon Shin, Yeongjun Yeo, Sungmoon Jung,  Jeong-Dong Lee


Session D6: General Equilibrium Modeling Issues (Room: P109)

Chair: Khalid Siddig

Growth versus equity: A CGE analysis for macroeconomic policy mix for the sustainable economic growth

Yeongjun Yeo, Sungmoon Jung,  Kiyoon Shin,  Jeong-Dong Lee

An integrated macroeconomic, demographic and health modelling framework for palm oil policies in Thailand

Marcus Keogh-Brown, Henning Tarp Jenson, Bhavani Shankar, Sanjay Basu, Soledad Cuevas, Alan Dangour, Shabbir H. Gheewala, Rosemary Green, Edward Joy, Nalitra Thaiprasert, Richard Smith

Labor exports from the West Bank to Israel: between regretting the past and hoping for a better future

Johanes Agbahey, Khalid Siddig, Harald Grethe

Session E6: Public Finance and Tax Policy (Room: P019)

Chair: Boris Majcen

Modelling corporate tax reform in the EU: New simulations with the CORTAX model

Maria Teresa Alvarez-Martinez, Salvador Barrios,  Diego d'Andria,  Maria Gesualdo,  Dimitrios Pontikakis,   Jonathan Pycroft

Integrating Microsimulation Tax Functions into a DGE Macroeconomic Model: A Canonical Example

Kerk Phillips, Richard W. Evans, Jason DeBacker

Development of Dynamic Pension Microsimulation Models for Slovenia and Their Practical Use

Mitja Čok, Gijs Dekkers, Aleša Lotrič Dolinar, Nataša Kump, Boris Majcen, Jože Sambt, Martin Spielauer, Tomaž Turk


10:30-11:00 Refreshment Break (Senat Conference Room)

11:00-12:30 Parallel Session

Session A7: Agent-Based Modeling (Room: P217)

Chair: Duc Pham-Hi

Social Network Structure and The Trade-Off Between Social Utility and Economic Performance

Jakub  Growiec, Bogumił Kamiński, Katarzyna Growiec

Efficacy of Fiscal Policy Changes in a Liquidity Trap: Does Household Heterogeneity Matter?

Bilal Bagis

Prototyping the macroeconomic impact of cryptomoney with a small agent-based model

Duc Pham-Hi

Session B7: Macroeconometric Modeling (Room: P216)

Chair: Aleksandra Halka

Identifying SVARs with Sign Restrictions and Heteroskedasticity

Srecko Zimic

Modeling of economic growth in Azerbaijan in the post-oil period

Adalat Muradov, Yadulla Hasanli, Nazim Hajiyev, Turaj Musayev

Determinants of low inflation in emerging, small open economy. Comparison of aggregated and disaggregated approaches

Aleksandra Halka, Karol Szafranek


Session C7: Miscellaneous Modeling Techniques (Room: P108)

Chair: Angi Roesch

BRIC stock market importance --- raw material suppliers versus manufacturing economies

Harald Schmidbauer, Angi Roesch, Erhan Uluceviz

Solving stochastic OLG (Overlapping Generation) models using VFI Toolkit in Matlab

Robert Kirkby

Did the BRICS institutionalization boost their stock market interconnectedness?

Angi Roesch, Harald Schmidbauer, Erhan Uluceviz


Session D7: General Equilibrium Modeling (Room: P109)

Chair: Mario Fortuna

Lifting two-decades-long economic sanctions on the Sudan: Future pathways of agricultural development in a normalized economy

Khalid Siddig

Welfare Effect of Sanctions on Iran in a Dynamic CGE Model

Mortaza Baky Haskuee

A CGE Model of the Impact of Military Expenditures in the US Air Base

Mario Fortuna


Session E7: Developing Countries (Room: P019)

Chair: Nihal  Bayraktar

Optimal Income tax rates with non-democratic political constraints: case of Armenia

Vardan Baghdasaryan, Hayk Hambardzumyan

Measuring the Efficiency of Resource Allocation in Turkish Economy Using Data Envelopment Analysis

Esra Alp

Public Security Spending and Growth

Nihal   Bayraktar


12:30-14:00 Lunch (Executive Conference Room)


14:00-15:30 Parallel Sessions

Session A8: Trade Issues (Room: P217)

Chair: Lumengo Bonga-Bonga

Export diversification, sophistication and economic growth in Morocco : An Econometric Analysis

Karim  Mohamed, Lotfi Bilal, El Moussaoui Mohamed

Regional Integration and Trade Nexus in South Asia: Does Institutional Framework Matter?

Saima Nawaz, Mumtaz Ahmed

How financially integrated are trading blocs in Africa?

Lumengo Bonga-Bonga


Session B8: Macroeconometric Modeling (Room: P216)

Chair: Ulrike Lehr

Optimal Implementation Curves of European Structural and Investment Funds in The Case of Slovakia

Marek Radvansky, Ivan Lichner,  Karol Frank

Green Financing Model : A Financial Instrument  Toward Indonesia Green Economy

Rita Helbra Tenrini, Wesly Febriyanta Sinulingga

Who benefits from climate investments? It depends.

Ulrike Lehr, Malte Oehlmann, Ralph Buechele


Session C8: Miscellaneous Modeling Techniques (Room: P108)

Chair: Durmuş Özdemir

The Effects of Terrorism on Happiness: Evidence from Turkey

Tekin  Kose, Julide Yildirim,  Gizem Tanrivere

Housing valuation, wealth perception, and households' portfolio composition

Sofia Vale, Francisco Camaes

The Role of economic and social factors on hepatitis B prevalence in Turkey

Selma Tosun, Olgu Aygün, Hülya Özkan Özdemir, Elif Korkmaz and Durmuş Özdemir


Session D8: General Equilibrium Modeling (Room: P109)

Chair: Kazuhiko Oyamada

Elasticity of substitution between labor and capital: robust evidence from developed economies

Jakub Muck

Panel estimation of sectoral substitution elasticities for CES production functions

Michal Antoszewski

Behavioral Characteristics of Applied General Equilibrium Models with Variable Elasticity of Substitution between Varieties from Different Sources

Kazuhiko Oyamada


Session E8: Developing Countries (Room: P019)

Chair: Imran Garayev

Is Economic Complexity Spatially Dependent? A spatial analysis of interactions of economic complexity between municipalities in Brazil Heder de Oliveira, Timo Verheij

Economic Costs of Rent-Seeking Activities in Resource Rich Countries

Aizhan Samambayeva

Globalization and Tax Policy

Imran  Garayev


15:30-16:00 Refreshment Break (Senat Conference Room)

16:00-17:00 Plenary Session (Blue Hall / Auditorium)

Chair: Can Erbil

Agent-based Models: Opening New Worlds of Applied and Theoretical Economics

Steven F. Railsback, Department of Mathematics, Humboldt State University, and Lang Railsback & Associates, Arcata, California, USA


17:00-17:30 Closing session (Blue Hall / Auditorium)

Mitja Cok, President of the LOC

Ali Bayar, President of EcoMod

Roberto Roson, Università Ca' Foscari, Venice, Italy


Web Presentations

Capital account flows, consumption ratios and the middle-income trap

Robert Alexander, Daping Zhao, Shanghai Lixin, and Sajid Anwar

Volatility  Forecasting before the  Subprime Crisis?

Felipe de Oliveira and Sinézio Maia